Air Recirculation Role in the Spread of COVID-19 Onboard the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship during a Quarantine Period

The Diamond Princess cruise ship is a unique COVID-19 transmission case because of the high testing capacity and the confined environment. This exploratory study aims to raise the hypothesis regarding the role of poor ventilation systems in the spread of COVID-19 by analysing count data collected by the onboard clinic during the outbreak, and considering the deck plan and design of the air conditioning system of the ship. Observed symptomatic infection rate after day 5 (incubation period median day) of the quarantine, in cabins without previous confirmed cases are compared to that in cabins with previous confirmed cases. Accordingly, the observed symptomatic infection rate in cabins without a previously confirmed case (1.2%) was higher than for cabins with a previously confirmed case (0.8%); however, the difference was not statistically significant. In addition, age did not appear to be a confounding variable. Airborne transmission of COVID-19 through the ventilation system onboard could explain the higher than expected virus spread into cabins without previously confirmed cases during the quarantine period; thus, this study provides further potential evidence of coronavirus transmission by aerosols. Conflicting results from other studies involving the Diamond Princess outbreak are also discussed in light of our results

The Importance of Identifying Iron Deficiency Anaemia in the Early Detection of Colorectal Cancer.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is common and carries a relatively poor prognosis. The strong relationship between tumour stage at diagnosis and survival is the basis of the English Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (BCSP) and highlights the importance of early diagnosis. Iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) is also common. About 10% of cases in males and post-menopausal females are due to underlying gastro-intestinal (GI) cancer, most commonly CRC - and IDA is often the first manifestation. This thesis examines the detailed relationship between IDA and CRC. Chapters 4 and 5 describe the analysis of four large IDA datasets, confirming the prevalence of GI cancer, and demonstrating that cancer risk can be predicted from four simple, objective clinical indicators. This IDIOM model proved robust on internal and external validation. This research is valuable for patient counselling, targeting the investigation of high-risk individuals and (perhaps) avoiding invasive investigation in ultra-low risk cases. Chapter 6 outlines the analysis of a subset with recurrent IDA, suggesting that the subsequent risk of GI cancer is higher in those who were incompletely investigated the first time around. Chapter 7 describes the development of the IDIOM App. This is a freely available web-tool which allows cancer risk in IDA to be calculated within seconds, lending itself to clinical usage. Chapters 8 and 9 report the analysis of a large CRC database, demonstrating that diagnosis through the IDA pathway (1) generates as many cases as the BCSP; (2) identifies a distinct sub-population with a predominance of right- sided lesions; and (3) like the BCSP, is associated with a favourable tumour stage profile. The findings suggest that identifying iron deficiency anaemia could play an important role in the early diagnosis of CRC

The effectiveness of couples’ lifestyle interventions (Randomised Controlled Trials) on weight change: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Obesity is still a major public health concern and a plethora of lifestyle-interventions targeting weight-loss at individual level have shown poor success. Health related behaviours including eating, tend to be concordant in couples which means they might share an obesity risk or support each other’s effort to change these behaviours i.e. weight loss. The aim of this systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis (MA) of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) was to assess the weight change effects of lifestyle interventions targeting couples compared to individuals or no-intervention

Perceived stress and diet quality in women of reproductive age: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Poor diet quality is associated with obesity-related morbidity and mortality. Psychological stress can increase unhealthy dietary choices, but evidence pertinent to women of reproductive age remains unclear. This paper systematically reviewed the literature to determine the association between psychological stress and diet quality in women of reproductive age. Methods: Medline, CINAHL, Scopus, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and Sciencedirect were searched. Data extraction was determined by the PEO. Inclusion criteria consisted of: English language, stress (exposure) measured in combination with diet quality (outcome), healthy women of reproductive age (18–49 years old (population)). Observational studies, due to the nature of the PEO, were included. Quality assessment used the Risk of Bias in Non-randomised Studies from the Cochrane Handbook of Systematic Reviews of Interventions. Meta-analysis was conducted using random-effect model to estimate the Fisher’s z transformed correlation between stress and diet quality with 95% confidence interval (CI). Results: From 139,552 hits, 471 papers were screened; 24 studies met the inclusion criteria and were conducted in different countries: 8 studies on diet quality and 16 on food intake and frequency of consumption. Studies of diet quality consisted of six cross-sectional and two longitudinal designs with a total of 3982 participants. Diet quality was measured with diverse indices; Alternate Healthy Eating Index (n = 2), Healthy Eating Index (n = 2), Dietary Approach to Stop Hypertension (DASH) Diet Index (n = 2), Dietary Quality Index- Pregnancy (n = 2), and Dietary Guideline Adherence Index (n = 1). Most studies used Cohen’s perceived stress scale and no study measured biological stress response. After sensitivity analysis, only 5 studies (3471 participants) were included in the meta-analysis. Meta-analysis revealed a significant negative association between stress and diet quality with substantial heterogeneity between studies (r = − 0.35, 95% CI [− 0.56; − 0.15], p value < 0.001, Cochran Q test P < 0.0001, I2 = 93%). The 16 studies of food intake and frequency of consumption were very heterogeneous in the outcome measure and were not included in the meta-analysis. These studies showed that stress was significantly associated with unhealthy dietary patterns (high in fat, sweets, salt, and fast food and low in fruits, vegetables, fish, and unsaturated fats). Conclusion: Future studies that explore diet quality/patterns should include both diet indices and factor analysis and measure biological markers of stress and dietary patterns simultaneously

The development of a web-based application to predict the risk of gastrointestinal cancer in iron deficiency anaemia; the IDIOM app

To facilitate the clinical use of an algorithm for predicting the risk of gastrointestinal malignancy in iron deficiency anaemia—the IDIOM score, a software application has been developed, with a view to providing free and simple access to healthcare professionals in the UK. A detailed requirements analysis for intended users of the application revealed the need for an automated decision-support tool in which anonymised, individual patient data is entered and gastrointestinal cancer risk is calculated and displayed immediately, which lends itself to use in busy clinical settings. Human-centred design was employed to develop the solution, focusing on the users and their needs, whilst ensuring that they are provided with sufficient details to appropriately interpret the risk score. The IDIOM App has been developed using R Shiny as a web-based application enabling access from different platforms with updates that can be carried out centrally through the host server. The application has been evaluated through literature search, internal/external validation, code testing, risk analysis, and usability assessments. Legal notices, contact system with research and maintenance teams, and all the supportive information for the application such as description of the population and intended users have been embedded within the application interface. With the purpose of providing a guide of developing standalone software medical devices in academic setting, this paper aims to present the theoretical and practical aspects of developing, writing technical documentation, and certifying standalone software medical devices using the case of the IDIOM App as an example

Downstaging of right-sided colorectal cancer diagnosed through iron deficiency anaemia

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Evidence for improved prognosis of colorectal cancer diagnosed following the detection of iron deficiency anaemia.

Iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) is common in colorectal cancer (CRC), especially, in right-sided CRC which is known to have an overall worse prognosis. The associations between diagnostic pathway (Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (BCSP), IDA, symptomatic) and tumour side/stage was assessed using logistic regression models in 1138 CRC cases presenting during 2010-2016 at a single secondary-care centre in the UK. In the IDA sub-group, the relationship between CRC stage and the event of having a blood count prior to CRC diagnosis was examined using Bayesian parametric survival model. IDA was found as the only significant predictor of right-sided CRC (OR 10.61, 95% CI 7.02-16.52). Early-stage CRC was associated with both the IDA (OR 1.65, 95% CI 1.18-2.29) and BCSP pathway (OR 2.42, 95% CI 1.75-3.37). At any age, the risk of detecting CRC at late-stage was higher in those without a previous blood count check (hazard ratio 1.53, 95% credibility interval 1.08-2.14). The findings of this retrospective observational study suggest a benefit from diagnosing CRC through the detection of IDA, and warrant further research into the prognosis benefit of systematic approach to blood count monitoring of the at-risk population

A Priori and a Posteriori Dietary Patterns in Women of Childbearing Age in the UK.

Poor diet quality is a major cause of maternal obesity. We aimed to investigate a priori and a-posteriori derived dietary patterns in childbearing-aged women in UK. An online survey assessed food intake, physical activity (PA), anthropometry and socio-demographics. An a priori defined diet quality was determined via Mediterranean diet (MD) adherence score and Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) derived dietary patterns (DPs). Multiple linear regression explored associations between DPs with anthropometric measures, PA and socio-demographics. Participants (n = 123) had low-to-medium MD adherence (average MD-score: 4.0 (2.0)). Age was positively associated with higher MD adherence (X2 (2) = 13.14, p = 0.01). EFA revealed three DPs: 'fruits, nuts, vegetables and legumes' ("Vegetarian-style" DP); 'sweets, cereals, dairy products and potatoes' ("Dairy, sweets and starchy foods" DP); and 'eggs, seafood and meats' ("Protein-rich" DP). "Vegetarian-style" DP was positively associated with higher maternal educational level (p < 0.01) and PA (p = 0.01), but negatively with white ethnicity (p < 0.01). "Dairy, sweets and starchy foods" DP was positively associated with white ethnicity (p = 0.03) and negatively with age (p = 0.03). "Protein-rich" DP was positively associated with age (p < 0.001) and negatively with PA (p = 0.01). A poor diet quality was found among childbearing-aged women; notably in the younger age category, those of white ethnicity, that were more physically inactive and with a lower socioeconomic background